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The value of quality-related (QR) research funding given to UK universities will be roughly one quarter less by the end of the decade compared to 2010 unless policy shifts, new analysis by the Russell Group shows.

Some ?2 billion in QR funding is distributed to UK universities annually on the basis of the Research Excellence Framework, with institutions free to spend their unallocated block grants on different ways of supporting research.

New analysis by the Russell Group of research-intensive universities indicates the real-terms value of QR funding will have fallen in England by 16.5 per cent in 2025-26 since 2010, with even steeper deterioration seen in the equivalent funding streams in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

In numeric terms, it means funding equivalent to ?2.38 billion in 2025-26 is now worth just under ?2 billion to universities in 2025-26, the analysis finds.

That follows a steady decline in real-terms QR funding between 2010-11 until 2021-22, following years of flat cash settlements. A sharp rise in QR funding to ?2.2 billion in 2022-23 has been followed by further steady decline, the new figures show.

The Russell Group projects that, by 2029-30, QR could provide only around 75 per cent of its 2010-11 real value if there are no policy changes to rectify the decline.

¡°This is undermining universities¡¯ efforts to invest in the vital infrastructure and people who sustain our world-class research base,¡± commented a Russell Group spokesperson.

In addition, the Russell Group has highlighted a decline in the Higher Education Innovation Fund (HEIF), which also plays an important roles in the UK¡¯s dual-support system.

The HEIF, England¡¯s primary public funding stream for university innovation, will be worth ?40 million less this year at ?260 million, representing a real-terms drop of approximately ?40 million from 2022-23.

¡°These funding declines are contributing to the increasing pressures universities face in funding vital research,¡± the Russell Group wrote in a statement.?

The analysis follows the announcement of a pilot study by Research England that will see universities asked to account for how they spent their block grants across their institution as part of wider efforts to improve public spending transparency.

In the analysis, the Russell Group stressed the contribution that universities make to research, which is largely subsidised by surpluses from the fees of international students.

¡°As cost-recovery rates fall and international income becomes more volatile, universities are already investing over ?6 billion a year into continuing the kind of vital research that government is looking for in order to drive economic growth, boost public services and maintain the UK¡¯s position on the world stage,¡± the group wrote.

jack.grove@timeshighereducation.com