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All the ¡°ingredients¡± are there for a bumper year of UK university entrants, according to experts ¨C with institutions ramping up advertising, freebies and more favourable offers to ensure they attract enough students to survive.

Ahead of A-level results day on 14 August,?early data suggests the sector could experience another record year?of students continuing into higher education.

Mark Corver, co-founder and former managing director of the dataHE consultancy?said the ¡°ingredients¡± are in place for strong numbers of young UK entrants on results day?¨C universities have the capacity and demand to recruit UK students who have become more valuable as a result of changes in the UK political climate. And large, demand-stalling falls in A-level grades are unlikely.

After several years of grade deflation following the highs of teacher-assessed grades during the pandemic,?students are expected to?achieve higher marks this year, but Corver, a former director of analysis and research at admissions service Ucas, cautioned that ¡°it takes two to tango¡± and the more uncertain part of the equation is whether students will take up the places on offer, with falling young application rates provoking concern for the last few years. But he added the most recent data was stronger, and late demand from 18-year-olds was up.

¡°UK 18-year-olds holding offers or already placed are up 8,000 year-on-year, the largest increase for a decade outside of pandemic years. If universities follow through on their confirmations this week we would see record numbers of UK 18-year-olds placed on results day.¡±

Universities are expected to be more lenient this year and accept more students who may have narrowly missed their offer grades.

And, with the three years¡¯ worth of funding that comes with a domestic student places becoming ever more attractive?because of?the uncertainties around international students, there appears to have been an increase in universities making unconditional offers as well.

Ucas data following Scottish results day on August 5 shows an increase in the ¡°firm placed¡± category for English, Welsh and Northern Irish 18-year-olds, up 3,680 (18 per cent) to 24,690 which Corver said was likely to reflect a rise in unconditional offers and a further signal that all types of universities are looking to recruit.

Amid an?expected ¡°cut-throat¡± recruitment round, universities have also sought to attract domestic students with prize draws and freebies.

The universities of Central Lancashire, Essex, Gloucestershire and Chichester were all offering new students?the chance to win free accommodation if they sign up.

Steven Jones, professor of higher education at the University of Manchester, said it was ¡°alarming¡± to see universities offer an essential feature of student life ¡°as a lottery prize¡±.

¡°The chances of winning are small, and there¡¯s no way to target students in greatest need.

¡°But it¡¯s not surprising that universities are turning to marketing gimmicks when the funding system we have is based on individualism and competition. ¡®Win free accommodation¡¯ is just another survival strategy.¡±

Instead, Jones said universities should ¡°put their rivalry to one side¡± and lobby government for a fairer deal for students.

¡°Advertising is a?hidden cost of the market in higher education,¡± he added. ¡°We don¡¯t know exactly how much universities are spending, but we do know it adds little to the quality of teaching or support that students receive. And it tends to be the universities that can afford it least who plough the most money into playing recruitment games.¡±

Clearing is expected to play an even bigger role this year?¨C with even Russell Group institutions such as?.

Corver said that A-level results day will be less of the complete story than it has been in the past with a complex clearing in prospect. Easier ¡®self release¡¯ by applicants has contributed to a good part of those placed on results day subsequently opting out. Last year around 29,000 UK 18-year-olds left their first place, with 18,000 of those moving elsewhere, making up half of clearing activity for this group. Lower and medium tariff providers will be wary if higher tariff providers stay active recruiting, he added.

¡°After a very difficult few years for UK 18-year-olds, things are swinging back a bit in their favour so they will welcome that additional choice. So long as they can afford the accommodation the scene is set for a further increase in young people changing their place post-results.¡±

For lower tariff providers older UK students are more important and in recent years most of this clearing recruitment has been from new applicants into the clearing process. ¡°It is early days, but these universities will be encouraged by this late interest from older applicants being up around 5 per cent at this point,¡± Corver said.

¡°None of the structural problems have gone away, but recruitment this year looks set to avoid the worst-case scenarios. ¡°

In terms of overseas numbers, there appears to be more good news for universities. Mike Nicholson, director of recruitment, admissions and participation at the University of Cambridge, said international offer holders appeared keen to come to the UK this year, perhaps because of ¡°greater uncertainty in other English-medium countries¡±.

¡°The fall in Indian undergraduate applications for 2025 entry has been more than offset by an increase in applications from mainland China and the USA.

¡°Turkey and Nigeria, both of which collapsed as sources of applicants in 2024 because of domestic economic reversals, have both seen a healthy increase in applications this year.¡±

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com