When Gary Davies, deputy vice-chancellor at London Metropolitan University, first worked on A-level results day in the early 1990s, university clearing consisted of advertising a few unfilled courses in the newspapers and then waiting for the admission forms to drop through the letter box.

Since then, the UK¡¯s university admission processes have undergone a ¡°huge, huge amount of change¡± ¨C and not just technologically.

For the past 50 years, domestic student places have been offered during students¡¯ final year of secondary school on the basis of their predicted grades in A levels or Scottish highers. These offers are then confirmed or rejected come August, when results are announced. If students fall short of their predicted grades ¨C or, indeed, exceed them ¨C clearing allows them?to apply for any remaining spaces on university courses up until October, when classes begin.

The scale of clearing is growing every year. This year the number of students applying directly to universities through the system reached an all-time high of 18,460 students by the end of the cycle ¨C up 48 per cent since 2016. But as more and more university seats are not definitely filled until after August, questions are being asked once again about whether it would be better to just switch wholesale to a system of post-qualification admissions ¨C commonly known by the acronym PQA.

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Matthew Andrews, chief operating officer and pro vice-chancellor for student experience at the University of Gloucestershire, described PQA as being ¡°like a higher education comet on some erratic path; it goes away for a bit, but¡­you¡¯re absolutely certain it will come back as a discussion point¡±.?

Since the start of the century, the government has already conducted three major reviews into whether England should move to PQA, in 2004, 2011 and 2022. Announcing the most recent review, Gavin Williamson, education secretary at the time, the current system is ¡°unfair¡±, citing research from UCL that found almost a quarter of high-ability applicants from lower-income households saw their A-level results underpredicted between 2013 and 2015, limiting their ability to enter higher-tariff institutions.

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However, while 66 per cent of respondents to the were in favour of a move to PQA ¡°in principle¡±, many were concerned about the practical implications of switching to it, and 60 per cent believed that PQA would be either ¡°worse than, or no better than¡± current arrangements. The government concluded that ¡°whilst there is some support for post-qualification admissions, this is not strong enough to indicate that this is the right time for such a major upheaval¡±.?

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Yet change is happening anyway. A ¡°new normal¡± has been established in the admissions process, Jo Saxton, chief executive of admissions service Ucas, said ahead of this year¡¯s results day. Clearing is no longer seen as a ¡°bargain basement for the people who [have] been unsuccessful¡±, she said, and is also being used by increasing numbers of students to trade up to higher-tariff courses when they have exceeded their grade expectations. This follows the introduction of a ¡°decline my place¡± option in 2021, which made it easier for students to opt out of their accepted university place during the main applications window.

Accordingly, as well as the all-time-high total number of students applying through the system, clearing also had its busiest first day on record this year, with 16,820 students securing a place ¨C up by 59 per cent since 2016, when 10,540 students were placed on the first day of the cycle.

Gloucestershire¡¯s Andrews observed that this changing behaviour has had ¡°the effect of delivering some of the key benefits of PQA¡± while maintaining the current system. But a formal shift to PQA, he warned, could create an ¡°advice and guidance deficit¡± as teachers may be unavailable in the summer holidays to discuss university options with students. And this, he worries, could disadvantage less well-off students with little family experience of higher education.

¡°People don¡¯t [all] have the same opportunity to plan with confidence about what their future is going to be, so it makes it very rushed for everyone. We¡¯re moving to a picture where we¡¯re almost getting the best of both worlds,¡± he said, explaining that the current system allows students to apply early, get guidance throughout the year, but also change their mind through clearing.

But Graeme Atherton, associate pro vice-chancellor for regional engagement at the University of West London, argues that the lack of availability of teachers in August need not be a concern under a PQA system if students were already very well informed about their higher education options by the time they left school.

In a report for the University and College Union¡¯s campaign in favour of PQA during the 2022 review, Atherton that the university application process should, in effect, start as early as Year 10: the first year of GCSEs, when applicants are aged 14-15. From then onwards, students should receive ¡°a minimum of 10 hours¡± of higher education information and guidance a year, Atherton believes, and schools should enrol them on the Ucas system.

He also thinks that such a system would, in reality, result in fewer bad course choices by students, noting that the Higher Education Policy Institute and Advance HE¡¯s annual student experience survey typically shows high numbers of students who express some degree of regret in their choice of university or course ¨C with this year¡¯s report finding the since the question was introduced.

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¡°Helping students make the best choices has never been more important than it is now,¡± said Atherton, who founded the widening access organisations AccessHE and the National Education Opportunities Network. ¡°We talk a lot about the challenges that universities are facing financially, but look at the challenges students are facing financially as well ¨C particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds. We need to support them to make the best choices possible.¡±

For him, the fact that the PQA discussion ¡°keeps coming back around¡± underlines that there is an ¡°issue¡± around equity that needs to be addressed. And the ever-growing clearing numbers reveal that ¡°students themselves are actively almost developing their own version of a PQA decision-making process¡±.

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Yet the practical concerns that came through in the 2022 consultation are still prominent in universities¡¯ thinking on PQA. Mike Nicholson, director of recruitment, admissions and participation at the University of Cambridge, noted that it is ¡°still a fairly small number of students¡± who secure places through clearing (51,490 students, out of a total of 684,840). By contrast, PQA would see the 50,000-60,000 Ucas forms that many universities currently process over the six-month application period ¡°landing on their doorstep on the day that applications open¡± in August.??

¡°We always start off with the principle that PQA is a great idea,¡± said Nicholson. ¡°But then you [have to] start looking at how you operationalise any of that.¡± As well as major changes to universities¡¯ process, PQA would also require revolutions in the way schools and exam providers operate, he noted.

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And it may introduce new problems. For instance, PQA could put students looking to challenge their A-level marks ¡°on the back foot because you need that position turned around really fast to be competitive¡±, Nicholson said. Under the current system, a student who misses their grades could switch to their ¡°insurance¡± offer, which is typically lower than that of their first-choice institution.

Yet the necessity of their doing so has diminished recently, as the financial crisis within the sector has prompted even higher-tariff universities to increasingly accept applicants even when they miss their target grades,?as seen in the latest cycle. Such universities have also begun to recruit more students through a clearing process that, historically, they tended not to feel the need to enter; the removal of student number caps in 2015 has allowed them to hoover up ever greater shares of student applicants ¨C leaving lower-tariff institutions increasingly struggling in ¡°cut-throat¡± recruitment rounds.

¡°High-tariff institutions, including those in the Russell Group, have been confirming record numbers of students and been more active in clearing because of uncertainty over arrivals from international markets such as China,¡± according to Charles Seger, associate pro vice-chancellor for recruitment and admissions at the University of East Anglia, whose university has made over 400 staff cuts in recent years.

In 2016, high-tariff institutions enrolled 148,640 students; this year, they have accepted 189,910 students, representing a 28 per cent increase. Conversely, lower-tariff institutions have seen their student numbers fall from 196,940 in 2016, to 158,260 this year, a 20 per cent decline. The intake of medium-tariff universities has seen only small declines, falling from 166,400 to 164,090.

The ¡°well-documented¡± recruitment behaviour of Russell Group institutions and the changes in applicants¡¯ approach to admissions means that lower-tariff universities ¡°can¡¯t be confident¡± about their anticipated student intakes until October, according to Davies, noting that London Met typically expects to lose between 4 and 5 per cent even of students who unconditionally accept an offer from the institution before October¡¯s matriculation day.

¡°I am concerned that percentage will increase,¡± he added, because as recruitment competition increases, students will be ¡°sitting on more and more offers¡±.

He also laments the ¡°false peak¡±, early in the recruitment cycle, ¡°of applications from people who are never going to come anywhere near you¡±, explaining that London Met reviews around 10,000 applications during the main Ucas cycle, ¡°only to pick up a fraction of that number¡± ¨C about 15-20 per cent.

PQA would not make planning student numbers any easier, of course, but nor would it make it much harder, Davies believes. ¡°We largely work historically, on how we have performed in [disciplinary] areas ¨C and in new areas where we¡¯ve added new bits to the portfolio, it is a little bit of a strategic guess. So [PQA] would make it slightly more difficult, I think, but there¡¯s a good chunk of the sector already having to do it that way.¡± In that sense, it would be higher-tariff institutions who would face greater change if the sector moved to PQA.

But neither UEA¡¯s Seger nor Cambridge¡¯s Nicholson believes that a switch to PQA would improve lower-tariff institutions¡¯ recruitment woes. Without wider sector reform, including the reintroduction of student number caps, PQA ¡°wouldn¡¯t stop what we¡¯re seeing in the current climate¡±, said Nicholson, ¡°which is [high-tariff] universities saying, ¡®If I fancy an extra couple of 100 students, I¡¯ll just take an extra couple of 100 students.¡¯¡±

In fact, he argued, this problem could become ¡°even worse because it would mean that universities would have absolutely no certainty over their student numbers¡± before August.?

But, for Atherton, concerns over how PQA would work in practice are both overblown and fail to address the equity concerns around the current admissions system. Proponents of PQA are not ¡°blind to the size of the challenge¡±, he said. But adopting ¡°incremental change¡± to the system to improve student choices ¡°isn¡¯t working¡±.

¡°A different admissions system could provide opportunities for us to address some of those [equity] issues as well, because they are not really being addressed at the moment: they are just accepted,¡± Atherton said. Nevertheless, he conceded, it would take ¡°something quite significant to focus energy and focus change¡±.

In the meantime, clearing looks likely to get bigger still, imposing ever more stress on admissions teams and senior managers alike. So does Davies wish he could return to the days of paper applications, when clearing hotlines were a wild fever dream?

Yes, he conceded. ¡°But I don¡¯t see that coming any time soon¡­Then again, it¡¯s work. Is work not meant to challenge you?¡±

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