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More study visa changes risk ‘overcorrection’ as migration falls

Number of people coming to UK halves in a year partly because of steep drops in students bringing dependants

May 22, 2025
UK visa no date
Source: iStock

A further crackdown on student visas is not necessary in the UK, university representatives claim, after official statistics showed the extent of the dramatic falls in people coming to the country after the last set of changes.

The latest??– released on 22 May – show that the government risks “overcorrecting” with its new proposed set of restrictions on international students, Independent Higher Education (IHE) warned.

A total of 266,000 students from outside the European Union arrived on study-related visas in 2024 – a 37 per cent drop from 423,000 in 2023. Fewer student dependants were responsible for about two-thirds of this.

The last Conservative government banned the vast majority of student dependants entering the country from January 2024, with?arrivals hitting a new low last month.

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Students from outside the EU are much more likely to bring dependants with them, particularly those from Nigeria and India.?Family members made up almost a third (29 per cent) of all study-related visas issued outside the EU in 2023, but this fell to just 6 per cent last year.

Overall, dependant visa numbers decreased by 105,000 (86 per cent) year-on-year – which was responsible for?roughly a quarter of the fall in the UK’s total net migration. The ONS estimated this figure to be 431,000 in 2024 – almost half what it was the year before.

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Concern around immigration – and poor performance in the polls – pushed the government to introduce?a number of proposed changes to the country’s visa system?last week.

This included?reducing the post-study work visa from a period of two years to 18 months, and a new levy on international tuition fee income. Universities?have warned that the changes represent a further “serious risk”?to the sector’s already shaky finances.

Alex Proudfoot, chief executive of IHE, said the figures showing falls in net migration mean there is a risk that the government “overcorrects” with its stricter policies.

“We urge ministers once again to consider the compelling evidence of the overwhelmingly positive benefits that international students bring and commit to a new international education strategy which effectively protects and promotes the UK’s enviable position as a world leader in education, skills and research.”

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Joe Marshall, chief executive of the National Centre for Universities and Business, said the “sharp decline in international student enrolment is not only a threat to the sector’s financial sustainability but it also poses a direct risk to the UK’s broader economic prospects”.

While their numbers have fallen overall, the ONS figures show that non-EU students and family members are increasingly transitioning to other visa types and staying in the country for longer.?

Of those who arrived in 2021, 46 per cent had moved to a different visa within three years – compared with just 18 per cent for the 2019 cohort.

And a third of 2023 arrivals had transitioned off a study visa by the end of the following year – up from 22 per cent for the 2021 cohort and 11 per cent for the 2020 arrivals.

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Almost half of Nigerians (49 per cent) and Sri Lankans (45 per cent) arriving in 2023 had transitioned to another visa by the end of last year. In comparison, just 6 per cent of Chinese study-related applicants had done the same.

Nigerian students, who were typically older than other applicants, were the most likely to be studying a master’s degree. And in contrast to other nationalities, they were also more likely to be based outside London – with the largest proportion (13 per cent) based in the north-west.

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patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com

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