Students entering English universities with fewer than three Ds at A level had the biggest increase in the proportion graduating with a first-class degree last year, according to new figures.

from the Office for Students, those who started university with grades below DDD were also almost four times more likely to get a first in 2017-18 compared with 2010-11.

The figures come in a report that updates, with 2017-18 data and for all UK-domiciled students, a previous OfS analysis on degree classification results in English universities, amid the continuing debate over grade inflation.

In 2017-18, 29.3 per cent of students left English universities with a first and almost four out of five received either a first or a 2:1. Since 2010-11, the share of those getting a first has gone up 13.6 percentage points, a relative increase of 87 per cent, the report says.

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The report also updates an analysis on how much of this increase in the share of firsts cannot be explained by changes in the make-up of the graduate population since 2010-11 (although improvements in teaching or students working harder could still be factors).

It finds that 13.9 percentage points¡¯ worth of first-class degree attainment in 2017-18 is unexplained, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from 2016-17. It means that if changes in the graduate population since 2010-11 are taken alone, there should have been a lower proportion of firsts being awarded in 2017-18 compared with seven years earlier.

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However, it is the data on the rise in firsts since 2016-17 for those with the lowest levels of prior A-level attainment that may raise the most questions for the sector.

More than 20 per cent of graduates who entered university with grades below DDD achieved a first in 2017-18, an increase of more than 4 percentage points since 2016-17.

The report adds that compared with 2010-11, ¡°for some entry qualification groups the percentage point increases equate to more than a tripling in the proportion of graduates attaining a first class degree in 2017-18 compared with 2010-11.

¡°For example, graduates who entered with grades below DDD at A level (or equivalent) were almost four times as likely to receive a first class degree in 2017-18 as they were in 2010-11.¡±

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The report also contains data on individual providers and how much of their own increase in the share of firsts is unexplained by changes in the graduate population since 2010-11.

At 15 universities,?and excluding small and specialist providers, the unexplained portion of first-class degrees in 2017-18 was more than 20 percentage points, with the highest unexplained element being at the University of Huddersfield (29 percentage points), an institution where 40 per cent of students got a first last year.

simon.baker@timeshighereducation.com